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BehaviorForecastsProbablyHard's avatar

In fairness, I am willing to entertain the possibility that US crime stats are monsterously distorted in significant and important ways. But if someone is telling me that the truth is different from what the stats indicate, then I want to hear a proposal to improve stats accuracy, and an explanation for what use political power and policy is in such a situation. I do not instead want to hear that I need to trust the politician's summary, instead of checking the numbers for myself, and forming my own guesses from those numbers.

I feel that Enoch Powell's Birmingham/Rivers of Blood speech may have in its favor the interpretation that he was picking up on the insanity of UK elites, Labour, and etc. On the other hand, he was speaking thirty years or so prior to the lunatics doing the early cover ups. Keir Starmer got his degrees during the eighties, and Enoch Powell perhaps could not have foreseen that or the results, unless the elite behavior patterns are genuinely persistent.

Almost sixty years later, and from a US and more academic dumbass perspective, it seems likely that the core problem is not the immigrants, but the judges, administrators, etc., trained in universities, seeing through the lens of theory, pushing policy effectively blindly, and being blithely unconcerned about the real consequences of what is actually happening. These politicians do not feel like they are observant, thoughtful, and honest.

There are two sets of stats important for these comparisons, and I would have questions about apples/apples and apples/oranges for any numbers for both over the full period of importance, which I estimate at 1940s to 2020s. I'm not sure that customs of sexual behavior were so stable, that reports of sex abuse would have had the same methodology over that time. The comparison numbers, number of other culture immigrants in UK, I would expect to maybe have better quality for 1940s to 1960s. (Though, I suspect that there were possibly some incentives to suppress reporting about acts of sex abuse by US servicemen during WWII.) Other culture person numbers are probably not wholely reliable for that 1970s to 2010, and especially the 2010 to mid 2020s time frames.

I think the academics buying into critical theory inspired behavior models, and into depolicing policies are a more likely driver than mere presence of the sorts of evil men born into every population. Culture is real, is important, and does matter. I am unsure whether the culture of the elites has mutated away from where it was, very recently, due to the universities.

For me, this is an intelligence analysis problem, and not one where I care to try to do a really awesome job, or to put work in on collection. I already had my guesses and preferences formed when I first heard about some of the cover up allegations around twenty years ago. The new information could be relevant to preference cascades, sure. It would be a very unwise UK national who resolves such a critical matter by relying only on what an American rando like me thinks.

It does look bad to me. I may be over relying on my own parallel concerns about whether American elite-identifying university trained persons are blithely indifferent to crimes committed against persons inside the USA when those crimes are against poor and uneducated persons. Quite a lot of people seem to have been trafficked across the US borders as de facto slaves, which may have had broadly negative effects for almost everyone here.

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Jack's avatar

“Historian” Tom Holland: “The true nightmare of #Rotherham is that the motives of those who turned a blind eye, however monstrous the consequences, were indeed noble.” “Historian” noble.

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