AIUI they are still doing a lot of rail transport away from the front and that might be vulnerable. But in general not as much because Ukraine has mechanized logistics so they can transfer between truck and train using one man and a forklift. Also Ukraine has layered air defense that can shoot down most drones and missiles (and Russian missiles are inaccurate anyway) so the chances of Russia taking out key ukrainian rail links are lower (but absolutely not zero)
Historically, taking out rail logistics is very difficult. The Western Allies put a major effort into it in France before D-Day but the Germans were still able to move and re-supply. I think your points about the vulnerability of electric trains does make it easier but not sure Ukraine has the capacity to sustain an anti-rail effort.
Even temporary interruptions are likely worthwhile. The thing is, if you've been following "OSINT Xitter" you'll know that Russian railways are facing a lot of issues right now. Having to repair multiple lines etc. at the same time could end up snarling things up even more
Let’s see how this plays out. Could be fun.
Super interesting points, especially the rail-truck tradeoff, or lack thereof. Thanks!
We are missing the elephant in the room. Ukrainian armed forces have invaded and occupied the territory of a sovereign nuclear power.
Everything we thought we knew about nuclear deterrence was wrong.
Indeed Phillips O'Brien noted that exact point
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/we-need-to-rethink-our-assumptions
The emperor has no clothes sums it up perfectly.
Is Ukraine similarly vulnerable?
AIUI they are still doing a lot of rail transport away from the front and that might be vulnerable. But in general not as much because Ukraine has mechanized logistics so they can transfer between truck and train using one man and a forklift. Also Ukraine has layered air defense that can shoot down most drones and missiles (and Russian missiles are inaccurate anyway) so the chances of Russia taking out key ukrainian rail links are lower (but absolutely not zero)
Interesting! Good to know, thanks.
Historically, taking out rail logistics is very difficult. The Western Allies put a major effort into it in France before D-Day but the Germans were still able to move and re-supply. I think your points about the vulnerability of electric trains does make it easier but not sure Ukraine has the capacity to sustain an anti-rail effort.
Even temporary interruptions are likely worthwhile. The thing is, if you've been following "OSINT Xitter" you'll know that Russian railways are facing a lot of issues right now. Having to repair multiple lines etc. at the same time could end up snarling things up even more
Note there is evidence that Ukraine is already impacting at least 2 or the four rail junctions
https://xcancel.com/Schizointel/status/1826330611004461430
The delusions on display by Fake Rightists like you are both sad and informative.
https://youtu.be/vKBOrkk1FZE?si=jaz3ekOAcPunUIJx