Rapes and Race Riots
Which is worse?
As we all know, the UK authorities are terribly upset at a certain E Musk for having the temerity to point out that thousands of gang rapes of young girls is a bad thing.
This seems to be for a number of reasons that they are upset but they mostly boil down to fear and shame. The fear is that if enough people in Britain get upset enough there will be unpleasant race riots and general unrest. The shame is because they have been systematically downplaying this scandal for decades and thus allowing thousands of girls to be abused over the years with little or no punishment for the rapists.
We should note that even though governments do seem to have got more serious about this over the last few years the BBC reports that the gangs are still active.
How Many Rapes?
So one question is just how wide spread is the problem?
Various sources, such as this GB News article, list 50 towns and cities where gangs have operated. Other news articles say things like “at least 50”
The inquiries into the abuses in Telford and Rotherham have put the numbers of girls abused at over 1000 and 1400 respectively.
This sky news article that has a comprehensve list of activities notes
In May 2024, 550 suspects had been arrested and 4,000 victims identified.
It is not totally clear if that is just from the Grooming Gangs Taskforce set up in 2023 or includes ones from other investigations.
We have a lower limit of 4,000 girls having been raped. E Musk Xeeted a number of 250,000 which seems implausibly high.
If the Rotherham and Telford numbers are representative then given that there seem to have been at least 50 towns where this happened then that implies 50 x 1000 = 50,000 girls.
My estimate is that the number is on the order of 50,000 - but it could be half that or double that. It probably isn’t under 20,000 or more than 100,000.
To be kinder to the authorities and to simplify the sums I’m going to put the number at about 35,000 in the rest of this analysis
35,000 victims is…?
The scandal has been going on for at least 25 years and probably a decade more. That means that every year around 1000 new girls have been gang raped by the gangs.
Every year around 1000 new girls have been gang raped by the gangs
There are roughly 300,000 girls of each year cohort in the UK so that means one in around 300 girls of any age group has been gang-raped. Given that there are large chunks of the UK which are not places where the ~50 identified rape gangs have operated and indeed are places without residents of the relevant ethnicity (primarily Pakistani and Somali in a couple of cases) that means that the number goes way up in those areas. It seems likely that in one those 50 areas the ratio of new victims to their year group is more like 1 in 100 or 1%, especially when you remove the Pakistani girls that probably weren’t targeted even if some of them were in fact abused at home.
In places like Telford if you see a school year group photo for any year in a Comprehensive school in the last 30+ years at least one of the girls in that photo was being gang-raped
If successful steps had been taken in ~2010 to stop the abuse then about 15,000 girls would not have been gang-raped.
The Tory party and civil service disgust of Tommy Robinson has had the result that about 5000 girls were gang raped between when Tommy Robinson started going about the issue in around 2018 and 2023 when Sunak finally set up the national Grooming Gangs Taskforce.
If Substack would let me do a table this would be easier. However here is a summary of girls gang-raped under the prime ministers of this century based on a simple linear model
Starmer: 500 (to date)
Sunak: 1700
Truss: <100
Johnson: 3000+
May: 3000
Cameron: 6000+
Brown: 3000-
Blair: 10,000
Probably half of Blair’s 10,000 was before anyone was aware that this was a systemic problem, but it was known to be a potential problem by at least 2004 when
[a] Channel 4 documentary about claims young white girls in Bradford were being groomed for sex by Asian abusers is delayed as police forces warn it could inflame racial tensions. It was finally shown three months later.
If the UK had got serious about stopping grooming gangs back in 2004 then over half of the gang rape victims could have been saved from such a terrible experience.
Take that 35,000 number a different way. There are roughly 35 million women in the UK. So one in a 1000 women in the UK have been gang-raped over the decades.
One in a 1000 women in the UK have been gang-raped over the decades
For women under 50, which is the slightly more accurate demographic, it’s higher than that at about one woman in 600. If the actual number of victims is 50,000 as opposed to 35,000 we’re at about one woman in 400 or 250/100,000. In disease terms that is far worse than any cancer. And, as I note above, for the current school age femals system, the incidence rate of gang-rape nationally is around one in 300 or 333/100,000
If gang-rape were a disease with an infection rate of 333/100k or even 250/100k we’d be spending millions looking for a cure or vaccine and panicking like the Wuflu was nothing.
It is perhaps worth considering the difference between gang-rape and HPV induced cervical cancers. In the 2008 the UK introduced HPV vaccination for schoolgirls aged 12-13 - approximately the same age as the gangs start raping them. The HPV vaccine has reduced the incidence of cervical (and related) cancers by 90% of what it was prior to mass vaccination. If only there were a way to reduce the gang-rape incidence they way cervical cancer was reduced.
A Race Riot of a Time
At various times the excuse trotted out by police, prosecutors and politicians for why they failed to investigate/prosecute etc. the gang-rapists has been that they were scared of a potential race riot. Specifically they were petrified that the “far right” would object to learning that the inbred brown-skinned adherents to an intolerant religion that has killed many British people had also gang-raped a lot of them.
These people will point to last year’s Southport inspired riots as evidence in their favor, while totally ignoring the fact that the perpetrator was a radicalized immigrant (OK technically child of immigrants, but born very shortly after they arrived).
Let me break this feeble excuse down. If the police, CPS, social services etc. had done their jobs back in the 1990s there would not have been as many gang-rapes in the first place because the ofiginal perps would have been arrested and (one hopes) imprisoned. What they are actually concerned about is that the British public will perceive that immigrant minorities have been able to evade responsibility for gang-rapes, acid attacks, forced marriages and so on because of the timidity of the British establishment.
The irony of Two-tier Keir’s crack down on mean tweets after Southport is that almost certainly some of the prisoners released so that mean-tweeters could be jailed were Pakistani gang-rapists. When this is proven, which I imagine will not take too long - we already know that some gang-rapists have served the relatively lenient sentences and been freed - I imagine this is going to be yet another scandal for the establishment. It will be even worse when (and I’m sadly confident that this is a when not an if) one of the convicted gang-rapists is arrested for a second time. People will note, correctly, that rapists who are strung up from lamposts and left to swing until they die do not commit additional crimes.
The UK government is deathly against the death penalty, but the UK population is not so convinced. If the UK government doesn’t start executing these people I predict there will indeed be the vigilanteism and race riots that the government has been so scared of. And the fault for these riots can be placed 100% at the British Professional Managerial Class who would rather see a few thousand girls raped than have an embarrasinbly fiery peaceful protest
Concur.
Though, I think fear of race riots may be an excuse, not the true motivation.
Insane communists are not the only people who would do it as part of trying to play divide and rule games with people, but some of the parties involved are definitely communists by American ways of reckoning.
I'm not sure I entirely buy the analysis of putting numbers on it. The 33k estimate, I expect would have a traceable effect on overall psychology of the UK population. But, from a distance, such an effect may be plausible.
People who aren't hurting because of women and girls being raped, are perhaps less persuadable that it is a tragedy, and a crime against women, if not enough elite women are being employed in high status position. A feminist sponsored campaign of terror against lower class women directly and middle class women indirectly makes a disturbing amount of sense at the moment, but hopefully that is just being up too late past bedtime.