I am again amazed at your level of interest and knowledge in what is going on my homeland, which differs from your own. Apart from Mark Stein, whom you quote and is a long time favorite of mine, I know of no other non American that has such a handle on what is going on over there. In fact, far too few of my fellow Americans have anywhere near the interest to say nothing of the knowledge you have on their homeland. You nailed it again.
I have lived there twice. I have friends there. And the US is, for better or worse, a major influence on the rest of the world so it helps to know what's going on there
True but you are uniquely plugged in among all I personally know with the exceptions of my parents and an old shipmate. If more homelanders had your interest, knowledge and understanding, that influence would be far more for the better than worse.
Fundamentally, there are costs to undermining the older established theories of the formal legal system. Doing so adds costs in many places.
Litigation, mediation, and arbitration costs are part of the overhead of business. They effectively add to every transaction cost.
Conservatism nominally includes a preference for predictable dispute resolution, where you can know that you are innocent and protected, and where long term investment can flourish.
Communism is more about chaos, where no one can be protected because anyone is admissible as an 'oppressor', and where destroying every stored value is considered an investment.
There are two problems with the moving hypothesis. One is that foreign countries may still yet manage to be worse. The other is that 'foreign' states are not magically immune to the ills of California and New York.
Legal authorities in 'red' states may still be party to this brand of feckless lawlessness, this determination to collude in obtaining a writ of attainder by way of star chamber.
There are also lunatics like me, who either want those legal authorities to resign and retire, or we want their precious novel legal theories jammed down their throats.
Being a sane alternative to New York requires A) not having communists in charge B) not putting the likes of me in the driver's seat either. We cannot prove that these will both hold for more than zero states.
I suppose my eyes are lying to me then when I notice a red state governor who has been carefully not firing one of the lawyers pulling this sort of lawless stuff.
There is one professional organization for American lawyers that controls the credentialing for all of the law schools. IE, the ABA.
That organization has a significant amount of influence over law schools. And most states require a JD from a credentialed program for the bar exam.
Something like three quarters of heads of law schools signed a letter proposing a novel theory of professional liability, basically for supporting Trump in legal disputes. I learned of it from Paul Caron, a Republican, when he bragged of signing it.
There are other reasons to suspect that a lot of 'Republican' lawyers hate you, and hate me, and will contort themselves to fraudulently deprive you of representation in a court of law.
That letter was signed and distributed January 12th, 2021. From that point, Republican officials ought to have seeking to relax state Bar requirements, and bring the management of universities under better control. They apparently have mostly done very little.
Therefore, it is safe to infer that many 'Republican' officials hate you, and hate me, and seek to defraud us under color of law.
It was pretty clear from day minus something that Obama was a psychopath. Much of the world hid their heads in the sand over that.
Yes, there is all sorts of movement even into the red state I am most familiar with.
I would not relocate to the east or west coasts for anything.
But, people who think that the red states are magically safe have their heads in the sand. The red states have substantial improvements to make.
Cost of improvemetns, plus cost of relocation, versus the cost of eating the oppression until even the blue states are fixed.
Lots of people are still hiding from reality, or are extremely indecisive. One or the other will delay a bit the choice of relocation.
The planning horizon before things become unforeseeable noise is potentially quite short, and the people who successfully relocate will do so prior to the preference cascade that reveals the new consensus.
Nothing is always going be most of the immediate likely scenarios, and relocations take time. Nobody really knows the balance of likely scenarios on the latter time scale.
My bet is on the peaceful scenario that may be faster or slower than relocation. The violent scenario could be faster or slower than relocation, maybe a lot faster.
From 322 million to 8.5 million 18 years later. The sale was at auction after they tried to sell it normally and got one offer of... 3 million.
I bet the previous owners are really eager to buy more real estate in New York.
The sale price was just because of the judge's ruling (work-from-home, leveraged assets, etc.). But it's not like New York is currently otherwise a great place to do business.
When things go really wrong, they go wrong in bunches. New York is getting those bunches. It's just a matter of how long it takes for the panic to start.
We moved to North Carolina 5 years ago. I was born in Queens, raised on Long Island, and lived and raised a family in Westchester for over 40 years. When asked "What brings y'all to Charlotte?" my first response has always been (and will continue to be) "Andrew Cuomo"...
I am again amazed at your level of interest and knowledge in what is going on my homeland, which differs from your own. Apart from Mark Stein, whom you quote and is a long time favorite of mine, I know of no other non American that has such a handle on what is going on over there. In fact, far too few of my fellow Americans have anywhere near the interest to say nothing of the knowledge you have on their homeland. You nailed it again.
I have lived there twice. I have friends there. And the US is, for better or worse, a major influence on the rest of the world so it helps to know what's going on there
True but you are uniquely plugged in among all I personally know with the exceptions of my parents and an old shipmate. If more homelanders had your interest, knowledge and understanding, that influence would be far more for the better than worse.
We shall see.
Fundamentally, there are costs to undermining the older established theories of the formal legal system. Doing so adds costs in many places.
Litigation, mediation, and arbitration costs are part of the overhead of business. They effectively add to every transaction cost.
Conservatism nominally includes a preference for predictable dispute resolution, where you can know that you are innocent and protected, and where long term investment can flourish.
Communism is more about chaos, where no one can be protected because anyone is admissible as an 'oppressor', and where destroying every stored value is considered an investment.
There are two problems with the moving hypothesis. One is that foreign countries may still yet manage to be worse. The other is that 'foreign' states are not magically immune to the ills of California and New York.
Legal authorities in 'red' states may still be party to this brand of feckless lawlessness, this determination to collude in obtaining a writ of attainder by way of star chamber.
There are also lunatics like me, who either want those legal authorities to resign and retire, or we want their precious novel legal theories jammed down their throats.
Being a sane alternative to New York requires A) not having communists in charge B) not putting the likes of me in the driver's seat either. We cannot prove that these will both hold for more than zero states.
Therefore, in conclusion, we shall see.
You need to stop smoking mushrooms. Don't stand in front of any exits from New York for the next few years.
I suppose my eyes are lying to me then when I notice a red state governor who has been carefully not firing one of the lawyers pulling this sort of lawless stuff.
There is one professional organization for American lawyers that controls the credentialing for all of the law schools. IE, the ABA.
That organization has a significant amount of influence over law schools. And most states require a JD from a credentialed program for the bar exam.
Something like three quarters of heads of law schools signed a letter proposing a novel theory of professional liability, basically for supporting Trump in legal disputes. I learned of it from Paul Caron, a Republican, when he bragged of signing it.
There are other reasons to suspect that a lot of 'Republican' lawyers hate you, and hate me, and will contort themselves to fraudulently deprive you of representation in a court of law.
That letter was signed and distributed January 12th, 2021. From that point, Republican officials ought to have seeking to relax state Bar requirements, and bring the management of universities under better control. They apparently have mostly done very little.
Therefore, it is safe to infer that many 'Republican' officials hate you, and hate me, and seek to defraud us under color of law.
It was pretty clear from day minus something that Obama was a psychopath. Much of the world hid their heads in the sand over that.
Yes, there is all sorts of movement even into the red state I am most familiar with.
I would not relocate to the east or west coasts for anything.
But, people who think that the red states are magically safe have their heads in the sand. The red states have substantial improvements to make.
Cost of improvemetns, plus cost of relocation, versus the cost of eating the oppression until even the blue states are fixed.
Lots of people are still hiding from reality, or are extremely indecisive. One or the other will delay a bit the choice of relocation.
The planning horizon before things become unforeseeable noise is potentially quite short, and the people who successfully relocate will do so prior to the preference cascade that reveals the new consensus.
Nothing is always going be most of the immediate likely scenarios, and relocations take time. Nobody really knows the balance of likely scenarios on the latter time scale.
My bet is on the peaceful scenario that may be faster or slower than relocation. The violent scenario could be faster or slower than relocation, maybe a lot faster.
We shall see.
Somewhat relevant:
https://nypost.com/2024/08/02/real-estate/huge-midtown-office-building-sells-for-a-97-discount/
From 322 million to 8.5 million 18 years later. The sale was at auction after they tried to sell it normally and got one offer of... 3 million.
I bet the previous owners are really eager to buy more real estate in New York.
The sale price was just because of the judge's ruling (work-from-home, leveraged assets, etc.). But it's not like New York is currently otherwise a great place to do business.
When things go really wrong, they go wrong in bunches. New York is getting those bunches. It's just a matter of how long it takes for the panic to start.
Debunk? That is not the word you're looking for. The word would be 'decamp'.
We moved to North Carolina 5 years ago. I was born in Queens, raised on Long Island, and lived and raised a family in Westchester for over 40 years. When asked "What brings y'all to Charlotte?" my first response has always been (and will continue to be) "Andrew Cuomo"...
I’m also in Charlotte. Well, just south in Tega Cay. Welcome. Please leave blue state voting habits in New York.
Every factory worker creates nine jobs.
Every trader on Wall Street creates 128.
That's not a typo. 128 jobs are created by every trader. Similar or higher when you're talking about IB. (Which is what this is about.)
When those high paying bank jobs go elsewhere...
NYC has long been the 'one stop shop' for money. If it stops being that... It really doesn't have another use.
Great column on NY's idiocy